June 3rd and 4th

Another 1-2 punch in the offing as a glorious 2008 chase season draws to a close (at least for me).



A "day before the day" on Wed, along a warm front in KS, maybe near SLN to CNK. Capping will inhibit convection for most of the day, but by late afternoon, convergence along the boundary should break the cap, especially near 00Z when the low level jet REALLY gets cranking and we get 500+ SRH. Could be 1 or 2 cells that are big bruisers with large tornadoes.



On Thursday, looks like a classic outbreak, although not top end due to moisture levels. We'd need mid 70s dewpoints for that I think...but nonetheless...i doubt it will disappoint with numeruos tornadic supercells expected along the dryline. KS and perhaps NRN OK is my pick area for classis sups. Will attempt to have chasercam on if data alllows. Good luck.

May 22nd and May 23rd...Potential Chase of the Year

The next two days have the potential to make or break my chase season. If it works out right, it could be one of my top chases of all time.

Moisture will surge back rapidly overnight tonight and through the weekend, with a nice deepening low over SE Colorado and a dryline setting up across WRN KS. A warm front will be inplace across NRN KS into SRN NEB.

What can I say...shear and instability will be great...especially near the dryline/warm front intersection. My pick as of now will be Hays Kansas...will get there tomorrow afternoon and go from there. Storm motions will be a bit quick, 200/40 or so, but will hope for a right move along the warm front.

Friday looks good as well, but perhaps not quite the shear setup as Thur. Still, very unstable air mass near the warm front should yield a few tornadic supercells, SRN NEB into NRN KS. Good luck to all who will be chasing!

April 3rd, 2008 - North Texas

Looks like a decent chase day setting up. Not sure about total tornado threat, but a nice beast of a storm seems likely with very large hail. Good moisture in place so instability will be large. Just a matter of the low level winds responding/backing after the passage of the lead upper wave. Could be a late show, if there is a sigtor. Targeting SPS and points just S later this afternoon.
Although helicity will be marginal, the very large CAPE and steep lapse rates can sometimes work magic, as can a deviant right moving storm. I still have hopes of seeing a tornado today, or perhaps early evening.

June 7th - OK into MO

Sorry for the late post...I know I"ve been about worthless as of late updating this.

Nice surge of Theta-E coming up through CNTRL OK, weak convergence along dryline. 18Z OUN sounding shows capping but continued heating should allow deeper CU to form, as seen on latest vis imagery. SRH is pathetic until you get into ERN OK/ SWRN MO where it may be sufficient for a sigtor if supercells can form and move into that environment later this evening. Will hope for initiation around home (OUN) or just NE of home and follow it NE.

May 23rd - OK/TX/KS

It's pretty clear parameters will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes (especially late), but exactly where the storms will be is a tough question. Models are all over the place, but there are two areas. 1) Along warm front as it moves NWWD across the panhandles and 2) farther west where main forcing is coming out. I don't like the models consistent forecast of poor low level lapse rates up through the TX panhandle. The main thing to watch today is the visible imagery and surface obs...if it can heat up toward 80 near the boundary then we'll be in really good shape. Would love to chat more but have to go WEST!

May 4 - Isolated Cell in SW KS??

Moisture return is well underway with strong heating expected W of dryline. Some concern with capping but should be able to break cap. This may occur rather late in the day, between 5-7pm. I expect an isolated supercell over SW KS, with potential for a decent tornado. This is just the apitizer as Saturday looks phenomenal.

4/24/07 - Clear as mud

It appears several parameters will be in place today over a wide area for supercells, including a few tornadoes. However, the whole system is less than optimal with stacked low and surging pacific front. As of 630 am CDT, the surface front was surging through west Texas. Models show this front stalling near I-35 later today, but 850 flow is veered even above/East of dryline. What we can hope for is that strong heating takes place W of dryline, and induces pressure falls to back those winds back to Southerly. Then, that will enhance low level rotation potential. Could be colder aloft but I won't complain too much since we have mid/upper 60s dewpoints.

Should I chase North (KS), or South (OK/TX)? I typically hate chasing south of the red river, N Texas sucks E of SPC-ABI line, but hey, "you can't rule it out". Up north storms are more probable near the low with enhanced convergence, but storm motions will be trucking 45 kts NNE and while they may spin for a brief period along the synoptic warm front, that won't last long...and I"ll be in fricken Nebraska before I know it! Not to mention I'm working my last night shift now and will be going on little sleep. Therefore, I may opt for the Southern option close to home, and maybe pick up a nice supercell before sunset at the tip of the hot prod SRN OK/NRN TX. 4km NSSL WRF shows a supercell near OUN by 00Z. I hate to say it, but this day might very well under produce in a bid way! I see biggest SIGTOR potential SERN OK into NERN TX late. Adios.