April 3rd, 2008 - North Texas

Looks like a decent chase day setting up. Not sure about total tornado threat, but a nice beast of a storm seems likely with very large hail. Good moisture in place so instability will be large. Just a matter of the low level winds responding/backing after the passage of the lead upper wave. Could be a late show, if there is a sigtor. Targeting SPS and points just S later this afternoon.
Although helicity will be marginal, the very large CAPE and steep lapse rates can sometimes work magic, as can a deviant right moving storm. I still have hopes of seeing a tornado today, or perhaps early evening.

June 7th - OK into MO

Sorry for the late post...I know I"ve been about worthless as of late updating this.

Nice surge of Theta-E coming up through CNTRL OK, weak convergence along dryline. 18Z OUN sounding shows capping but continued heating should allow deeper CU to form, as seen on latest vis imagery. SRH is pathetic until you get into ERN OK/ SWRN MO where it may be sufficient for a sigtor if supercells can form and move into that environment later this evening. Will hope for initiation around home (OUN) or just NE of home and follow it NE.

May 23rd - OK/TX/KS

It's pretty clear parameters will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes (especially late), but exactly where the storms will be is a tough question. Models are all over the place, but there are two areas. 1) Along warm front as it moves NWWD across the panhandles and 2) farther west where main forcing is coming out. I don't like the models consistent forecast of poor low level lapse rates up through the TX panhandle. The main thing to watch today is the visible imagery and surface obs...if it can heat up toward 80 near the boundary then we'll be in really good shape. Would love to chat more but have to go WEST!

May 4 - Isolated Cell in SW KS??

Moisture return is well underway with strong heating expected W of dryline. Some concern with capping but should be able to break cap. This may occur rather late in the day, between 5-7pm. I expect an isolated supercell over SW KS, with potential for a decent tornado. This is just the apitizer as Saturday looks phenomenal.

4/24/07 - Clear as mud

It appears several parameters will be in place today over a wide area for supercells, including a few tornadoes. However, the whole system is less than optimal with stacked low and surging pacific front. As of 630 am CDT, the surface front was surging through west Texas. Models show this front stalling near I-35 later today, but 850 flow is veered even above/East of dryline. What we can hope for is that strong heating takes place W of dryline, and induces pressure falls to back those winds back to Southerly. Then, that will enhance low level rotation potential. Could be colder aloft but I won't complain too much since we have mid/upper 60s dewpoints.

Should I chase North (KS), or South (OK/TX)? I typically hate chasing south of the red river, N Texas sucks E of SPC-ABI line, but hey, "you can't rule it out". Up north storms are more probable near the low with enhanced convergence, but storm motions will be trucking 45 kts NNE and while they may spin for a brief period along the synoptic warm front, that won't last long...and I"ll be in fricken Nebraska before I know it! Not to mention I'm working my last night shift now and will be going on little sleep. Therefore, I may opt for the Southern option close to home, and maybe pick up a nice supercell before sunset at the tip of the hot prod SRN OK/NRN TX. 4km NSSL WRF shows a supercell near OUN by 00Z. I hate to say it, but this day might very well under produce in a bid way! I see biggest SIGTOR potential SERN OK into NERN TX late. Adios.

FCST: February 23rd, 2007

First chase of the year, and an early one! I am quite excited about the prospects of widespread supercellular activity. Things may not begin perfectly, but I am forecasting it to be really cookin' by early evening.

I've been fairly bullish on this systems potential for a while and feel even more so after the latest 00Z NAM run. I suppose that means it will flame out. For daylight hours, rapid changes will take place by late afternoon due to low level theta-e advection/cap removal beneath ever steepening mid level lapse rates. Forecast NAM soundings 21-00Z show it uncapped along dryline. At first, I was concerned about seeming lack of low level convergence / weak veering at 850 w of dryline, especially farther North. This is a "good" thing for no-squalline though. There does seem to be a bit of a "push"/ "bulge" from LBB NEWD toward CDS because of lead wave aloft. I like the deep mixing in this area which leads me to believe there will be initiation over the SRN TX panhandle or NW TX. In addition, this "hot prod" will be pointing right into a progged moist bullseye/axis with upper 50s dews (60 if you believe the NAM) over SW OK. Given superb hodographs, I would expect initially relatively high based clouds coming out of the "heat", but quickly turning into classic supercells as they travel toward SW OK. Maybe this will be the best target for daytime storms? I was originally liking farther N around GAG or DDC, but now I'm thinking more S. I don't like the dry air in place now but if we can get a 55+ dewpoint I won't be too worried. Most models give 56+ dews. Southern target would have better access to dews. Also lead wave and maybe enhanced convergence, not to mention steeper low level lapse rates in the "heat" w of dryline. My stab is for a cell to form around Hall county and continue NEWD into Beckham/Washita counties with a photogenic, large tornado (and an unbroken windshield!). Happy chasing and I will try to have the CHASERCAM up and running! http://www.corepuncher.com/chasercam/

FCST: May 9th - Messy Forecast

*Sorry this is late, blogger site was not working right!*

Why can't we ever have the clear cut cases? Very complicated forecast today, I'm not confident in any one scenario, but I will offer three possible chase targets: 1) ERN OK - Some pretty nasty outflow air from overnight MCS North of I-40. The outflow boundary may provide a focus for later development, however, capping on morning soundings is substantial, at least for surface based parcels. Looks like we need mid 90-95 just to think about initiation. Bad thing is, the 700 warm axis 10-12 C shifts EWD across the state through the day, and given low amplitude trough, low level winds are veered 850 flow will weaken with time. Still, relatively higher speeds appear likely over SERN OK into WRN AR / NERN TX. Phenomenal instability in place, and deep shear sufficient for supercells. Will there be much during the day? I'll hope for initiation somewhere over SCNTRL OK, but not holding my breath. If the GFS verifies, there could be some "night hoses" with stronger low level shear and surface low. I'd rather not chase E of Eufala unless there is a distinct SIG TOR threat before sunset. 2) SRN OK into TX - Easy to overlook TX, but it's going to get HOT West of dryline with temperatures around 100. Convergence not really strong but I expect isolated cells anywhere from far SRN OK to the Rio Grande. Some weaker flow aloft I-20 corridor but maybe farther S of there conditions more favorable flow-wise. 3) TX Panhandle into WRN OK (late) - Best shot at widespread convection, but starting out high based and behind cold front! I am hopeful of the "wrap around moisture" prog with RUC saying 4000 CAPE into far SW OK poking WWD toward CDS after 21Z. This may be the best combination of good terrain, parameters, and storm likelihood. What a complicated day! I'll wait and see, haven't decided on a target yet.

FCST: May 9th - Messy Forecast

Why can't we ever have the clear cut cases?

Very complicated forecast today, I'm not confident in any one scenario, but I will offer three possible chase targets:

1) ERN OK - Some pretty nasty outflow air from overnight MCS North of I-40. The outflow boundary may provide a focus for later development, however, capping on morning soundings is substantial, at least for surface based parcels. Looks like we need mid 90-95 just to think about initiation. Bad thing is, the 700 warm axis 10-12 C shifts EWD across the state through the day, and given low amplitude trough, low level winds are veered 850 flow will weaken with time. Still, relatively higher speeds appear likely over SERN OK into WRN AR / NERN TX. Phenomenal instability in place, and deep shear sufficient for supercells. Will there be much during the day? I'll hope for initiation somewhere over SCNTRL OK, but not holding my breath. If the GFS verifies, there could be some "night hoses" with stronger low level shear and surface low. I'd rather not chase E of Eufala unless there is a distinct SIG TOR threat before sunset.

2) SRN OK into TX - Easy to overlook TX, but it's going to get HOT West of dryline with temperatures around 100. Convergence not really strong but I expect isolated cells anywhere from far SRN OK to the Rio Grande. Some weaker flow aloft I-20 corridor but maybe farther S of there conditions more favorable flow-wise.

3) TX Panhandle into WRN OK (late) - Best shot at widespread convection, but starting out high based and behind cold front! I am hopeful of the "wrap around moisture" prog with RUC saying 4000 CAPE into far SW OK poking WWD toward CDS after 21Z. This may be the best combination of good terrain, parameters, and storm likelihood.

What a complicated day! I'll wait and see, haven't decided on a target yet.

FCST: May 9th - Messy Forecast

Why can't we ever have the clear cut cases?

Very complicated forecast today, I'm not confident in any one scenario, but I will offer three possible chase targets:

1) ERN OK - Some pretty nasty outflow air from overnight MCS North of I-40. The outflow boundary may provide a focus for later development, however, capping on morning soundings is substantial, at least for surface based parcels. Looks like we need mid 90-95 just to think about initiation. Bad thing is, the 700 warm axis 10-12 C shifts EWD across the state through the day, and given low amplitude trough, low level winds are veered 850 flow will weaken with time. Still, relatively higher speeds appear likely over SERN OK into WRN AR / NERN TX. Phenomenal instability in place, and deep shear sufficient for supercells. Will there be much during the day? I'll hope for initiation somewhere over SCNTRL OK, but not holding my breath. If the GFS verifies, there could be some "night hoses" with stronger low level shear and surface low. I'd rather not chase E of Eufala unless there is a distinct SIG TOR threat before sunset.

2) SRN OK into TX - Easy to overlook TX, but it's going to get HOT West of dryline with temperatures around 100. Convergence not really strong but I expect isolated cells anywhere from far SRN OK to the Rio Grande. Some weaker flow aloft I-20 corridor but maybe farther S of there conditions more favorable flow-wise.

3) TX Panhandle into WRN OK (late) - Best shot at widespread convection, but starting out high based and behind cold front! I am hopeful of the "wrap around moisture" prog with RUC saying 4000 CAPE into far SW OK poking WWD toward CDS after 21Z. This may be the best combination of good terrain, parameters, and storm likelihood.

What a complicated day! I'll wait and see, haven't decided on a target yet.