Chasing Today Sunday March 12th !!!
Sunday has high end tornado potential to be sure, from extreme ERN KS into NRN MO mainly N of I-70.
Initial Target: East side of KC metro area, early afternoon
Main chasing concerns: Chase Logistics due to fast storm motions
Finally, we have some quality low level moisture in place across the lower MS valley, which will advect NWD into the target area tomorrow. on a strong sly low level jet. The 00Z models from tonight paint a scary picture, with plenty of instability and insane wind shear profiles. Just take a look at the 00Z forecast sounding for Columbia MO...2200+ MUCAPE and 600+ SRH ! There will be little capping so I expect storms to form by 21Z. Latest 00Z NAM shows initiation farther West than previous runs, maybe along the warm front / dryline intersection.
Like I said, the main problems will be both 1) Fast storm motions around 50 mph, plus 2) Locally hilly conditions and decreased visibility due to trees, depending upon the road. At least the storm motions will NOT be due Northeast...which is almost impossible to chase with fast speeds. A good right moving storm may be moving about 255/48. At least trees do not have much foliage this time of year!
I'll get the chasercam up during the afternoon hours. Everyone out chasing on Sunday, have a safe chase!
Initial Target: East side of KC metro area, early afternoon
Main chasing concerns: Chase Logistics due to fast storm motions
Finally, we have some quality low level moisture in place across the lower MS valley, which will advect NWD into the target area tomorrow. on a strong sly low level jet. The 00Z models from tonight paint a scary picture, with plenty of instability and insane wind shear profiles. Just take a look at the 00Z forecast sounding for Columbia MO...2200+ MUCAPE and 600+ SRH ! There will be little capping so I expect storms to form by 21Z. Latest 00Z NAM shows initiation farther West than previous runs, maybe along the warm front / dryline intersection.
Like I said, the main problems will be both 1) Fast storm motions around 50 mph, plus 2) Locally hilly conditions and decreased visibility due to trees, depending upon the road. At least the storm motions will NOT be due Northeast...which is almost impossible to chase with fast speeds. A good right moving storm may be moving about 255/48. At least trees do not have much foliage this time of year!
I'll get the chasercam up during the afternoon hours. Everyone out chasing on Sunday, have a safe chase!
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