FCST: Sunday March 19th
Updated 7:45 AM CST
It's a no go. Too many negatives for such a drive. First, there are lots of clouds. Second, the warm front is quite far South. Third, the RUC and NAM could not be more different, RUC says 850 flow is horrible this afternoon and keeps instability south of Junction, while the NAM strengthens 850 flow late, but farther West over not as good air. Given all these negatives, will sit this one out. Still will keep an eye out...cannot rule out a last minute drive to the SouthWest to intercept any supercell that may form, but at the moment it does not look that good.
Old post below...
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Target area: Near Abilene, TX
This is a complicated forecast as of late Saturday night. Ongoing storms over srn TX which may reinforce the warm front...and make it harder for good moisture to return NWWD. I expect at least some near 60 dewpoints up to Abilene by afternoon though. Looks like storms will fire early farther west though, given uncapped forecast soundings for MAF and LBB at 18Z! That's ok...just as long as we get a few supercells. They will move NE and encounter increasingly better low level shear and instability. Therefore, I am hoping for a nice supercell not too far from Abilene before sunset. Maybe just W of there. BTW...if we do get low 60 dewpoints up that far NW, there should be some butt kicking supercells with a few tornadoes, given 300-400 0-3 SRH forecast by the models.
It's a no go. Too many negatives for such a drive. First, there are lots of clouds. Second, the warm front is quite far South. Third, the RUC and NAM could not be more different, RUC says 850 flow is horrible this afternoon and keeps instability south of Junction, while the NAM strengthens 850 flow late, but farther West over not as good air. Given all these negatives, will sit this one out. Still will keep an eye out...cannot rule out a last minute drive to the SouthWest to intercept any supercell that may form, but at the moment it does not look that good.
Old post below...
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Target area: Near Abilene, TX
This is a complicated forecast as of late Saturday night. Ongoing storms over srn TX which may reinforce the warm front...and make it harder for good moisture to return NWWD. I expect at least some near 60 dewpoints up to Abilene by afternoon though. Looks like storms will fire early farther west though, given uncapped forecast soundings for MAF and LBB at 18Z! That's ok...just as long as we get a few supercells. They will move NE and encounter increasingly better low level shear and instability. Therefore, I am hoping for a nice supercell not too far from Abilene before sunset. Maybe just W of there. BTW...if we do get low 60 dewpoints up that far NW, there should be some butt kicking supercells with a few tornadoes, given 300-400 0-3 SRH forecast by the models.
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