FCST: Tuesday March 7th - No chase for me (work)
Target: Somewhere between Enid and Wichita.
Expect: Large hail (Possibly tennis ball size), isolated tornado.
Concerns: Moisture quality/upstream drying,Capping, possible late initiation.
Discussion: Current RAOB data this morning showed good quality moisture over central OK, with a 52 F 850 mb dewpoint at OUN. However, upstream soundings at FWD as well as GPS water vapor sensors showed a dry area over NRN TX. This "lack of moisture" will likely advect NWD through the day...but there is better moisture behind this "dry hole" and is reflected by low level cloudiness moving NWD out of central / SERN TX. As of 17Z, you can see the moisture almost to the DFW Metroplex. Therefore, dewpoints could fluxuate through the day from mid 50s to low 60s. Depending up on the dewpoint, this could make all the difference between late afternoon initiation vs. waiting until nighttime because it is capped. Further, there is some cirrus over the target area currently which will hamper heating for a while. Hopefully this will clear out and allow for stronger heating, which is needed. All that said, parameters are favorable for supercells and I expect at least 1 between 21-03 z near target area. No corepunching today!
Expect: Large hail (Possibly tennis ball size), isolated tornado.
Concerns: Moisture quality/upstream drying,Capping, possible late initiation.
Discussion: Current RAOB data this morning showed good quality moisture over central OK, with a 52 F 850 mb dewpoint at OUN. However, upstream soundings at FWD as well as GPS water vapor sensors showed a dry area over NRN TX. This "lack of moisture" will likely advect NWD through the day...but there is better moisture behind this "dry hole" and is reflected by low level cloudiness moving NWD out of central / SERN TX. As of 17Z, you can see the moisture almost to the DFW Metroplex. Therefore, dewpoints could fluxuate through the day from mid 50s to low 60s. Depending up on the dewpoint, this could make all the difference between late afternoon initiation vs. waiting until nighttime because it is capped. Further, there is some cirrus over the target area currently which will hamper heating for a while. Hopefully this will clear out and allow for stronger heating, which is needed. All that said, parameters are favorable for supercells and I expect at least 1 between 21-03 z near target area. No corepunching today!
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