FCST: Wednesday March 29th

I will not chase today. There is a shot of a severe storm across the SRN plains late Wednesday, but potential looks too low for me to make chase plans at this time. I will of course continue to monitor the situation.

Main failure mode for today will be forcing. Yes, there will be a dryline with some convergence but other factors may negate this. First, there will be shortwave ridging aloft in advance of the main trough which will be moving into NM late in the day. While models do show an axis of instability over WRN OK into NW TX, convergence will actually decrease with time due to backing winds WEST of the dryline in response to approaching upper trough. Therefore, I expect best shot of storms West of the dryline where there will be little in the way of instability for severe. Temperatures aloft will warm as well, thus, it does not appear to be a very good chase day unless you live in Midland or Lubbock and want to take a jaunt West to see maybe some hail. Convective activity will likely peak after sunset across WRN TX as low level jet brings more moisture NWWD. Thursday looks more interesting, but still nowhere near optimal. Expect a post for Thursday by Wed night.