FCST: ERN TX Panhandle / WRN OK
Going West today. Overall, wind profiles will be marginally favorable for tornadoes, with thermodynmics picking up the slack. As of noon, an outflow boundary extended across NW TX / WRN OK, with surface map showing low to mid 60s dewpoints advecting NWD W of this boundary, from ABI North to CDS. Morning soundings show very steep mid to upper level lapse rates in place, which will combine with heating to produce strong instaiblity.
Storms will be likely by late afternoon over NW TX and the Panhandle, along residual outflow boundary and where strong heating takes place. Flow aloft may only be 30-35 kts at 500 mb, increasing to perhaps 50 kts higher up. This suggests that shear will be only marginally favorable for sustained / long lived supercells. However, given steep lapse rates in place, and low level shear augmentation by residual boundary and increasing 850 flow (around and after 00z), any strong storm may produce a tornado, especially early in its life cycle before becoming occluded. Will leave Norman by 1pm, initial target CDS. Will have chasecam up, provided cell coverage!
Storms will be likely by late afternoon over NW TX and the Panhandle, along residual outflow boundary and where strong heating takes place. Flow aloft may only be 30-35 kts at 500 mb, increasing to perhaps 50 kts higher up. This suggests that shear will be only marginally favorable for sustained / long lived supercells. However, given steep lapse rates in place, and low level shear augmentation by residual boundary and increasing 850 flow (around and after 00z), any strong storm may produce a tornado, especially early in its life cycle before becoming occluded. Will leave Norman by 1pm, initial target CDS. Will have chasecam up, provided cell coverage!
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