FCST: Thursday March 30th

I will be chasing today, leaving OUN around noon or so, unless of course I have reason to stick around.

Things should get interesting in a hurry, from N to S. Although the upper system will begin to "leave" the SRN part of the dryline behind, orienting it NE / SW after 21Z...there should be sufficient instaibilty, not to mention extreme hodographs for multiple tornadoes over ERN KS and NERN OK. Plus, this will allow portions of the dryline in OK to heat fully. I expect several tornado reports in ERN OK. I like to play the "heat"...basically following the hot prod NEWD into the high helicity environment. I'd like to see a nice tornadic sup. cross highway 75 N of Tulsa about 5 PM!

FCST: Wednesday March 29th

I will not chase today. There is a shot of a severe storm across the SRN plains late Wednesday, but potential looks too low for me to make chase plans at this time. I will of course continue to monitor the situation.

Main failure mode for today will be forcing. Yes, there will be a dryline with some convergence but other factors may negate this. First, there will be shortwave ridging aloft in advance of the main trough which will be moving into NM late in the day. While models do show an axis of instability over WRN OK into NW TX, convergence will actually decrease with time due to backing winds WEST of the dryline in response to approaching upper trough. Therefore, I expect best shot of storms West of the dryline where there will be little in the way of instability for severe. Temperatures aloft will warm as well, thus, it does not appear to be a very good chase day unless you live in Midland or Lubbock and want to take a jaunt West to see maybe some hail. Convective activity will likely peak after sunset across WRN TX as low level jet brings more moisture NWWD. Thursday looks more interesting, but still nowhere near optimal. Expect a post for Thursday by Wed night.

FCST: Sunday March 19th

Updated 7:45 AM CST

It's a no go. Too many negatives for such a drive. First, there are lots of clouds. Second, the warm front is quite far South. Third, the RUC and NAM could not be more different, RUC says 850 flow is horrible this afternoon and keeps instability south of Junction, while the NAM strengthens 850 flow late, but farther West over not as good air. Given all these negatives, will sit this one out. Still will keep an eye out...cannot rule out a last minute drive to the SouthWest to intercept any supercell that may form, but at the moment it does not look that good.


Old post below...
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Target area: Near Abilene, TX

This is a complicated forecast as of late Saturday night. Ongoing storms over srn TX which may reinforce the warm front...and make it harder for good moisture to return NWWD. I expect at least some near 60 dewpoints up to Abilene by afternoon though. Looks like storms will fire early farther west though, given uncapped forecast soundings for MAF and LBB at 18Z! That's ok...just as long as we get a few supercells. They will move NE and encounter increasingly better low level shear and instability. Therefore, I am hoping for a nice supercell not too far from Abilene before sunset. Maybe just W of there. BTW...if we do get low 60 dewpoints up that far NW, there should be some butt kicking supercells with a few tornadoes, given 300-400 0-3 SRH forecast by the models.

Chasing Today Sunday March 12th !!!

Sunday has high end tornado potential to be sure, from extreme ERN KS into NRN MO mainly N of I-70.

Initial Target: East side of KC metro area, early afternoon
Main chasing concerns: Chase Logistics due to fast storm motions

Finally, we have some quality low level moisture in place across the lower MS valley, which will advect NWD into the target area tomorrow. on a strong sly low level jet. The 00Z models from tonight paint a scary picture, with plenty of instability and insane wind shear profiles. Just take a look at the 00Z forecast sounding for Columbia MO...2200+ MUCAPE and 600+ SRH ! There will be little capping so I expect storms to form by 21Z. Latest 00Z NAM shows initiation farther West than previous runs, maybe along the warm front / dryline intersection.

Like I said, the main problems will be both 1) Fast storm motions around 50 mph, plus 2) Locally hilly conditions and decreased visibility due to trees, depending upon the road. At least the storm motions will NOT be due Northeast...which is almost impossible to chase with fast speeds. A good right moving storm may be moving about 255/48. At least trees do not have much foliage this time of year!

I'll get the chasercam up during the afternoon hours. Everyone out chasing on Sunday, have a safe chase!

FCST: Tuesday March 7th - No chase for me (work)

Target: Somewhere between Enid and Wichita.

Expect: Large hail (Possibly tennis ball size), isolated tornado.

Concerns: Moisture quality/upstream drying,Capping, possible late initiation.

Discussion: Current RAOB data this morning showed good quality moisture over central OK, with a 52 F 850 mb dewpoint at OUN. However, upstream soundings at FWD as well as GPS water vapor sensors showed a dry area over NRN TX. This "lack of moisture" will likely advect NWD through the day...but there is better moisture behind this "dry hole" and is reflected by low level cloudiness moving NWD out of central / SERN TX. As of 17Z, you can see the moisture almost to the DFW Metroplex. Therefore, dewpoints could fluxuate through the day from mid 50s to low 60s. Depending up on the dewpoint, this could make all the difference between late afternoon initiation vs. waiting until nighttime because it is capped. Further, there is some cirrus over the target area currently which will hamper heating for a while. Hopefully this will clear out and allow for stronger heating, which is needed. All that said, parameters are favorable for supercells and I expect at least 1 between 21-03 z near target area. No corepunching today!

Today 3/4 (no chase for me)

No chase for me today. I have to work until 4pm and could not reach the target area. Besides, I probably wouldn't chase even if I was off, potential just too low when weighing how far the trip would be to....

ERN NM - Potential for a few somewhat high based supercells today producing mainly hail. It's capped into TX but heating up over NM. We might even get a couple storms into the WRN TX panhandle by late afternoon given better moisture and it is clearing out a bit as of noon local time.

Dewpoints will continue to rise into the 50s and with the trough approaching...storms are likely. If I could magically teleport myself after work I'd go to Roswell, maybe even Clovis to watch an isolated storm.