FCST: February 23rd, 2007
First chase of the year, and an early one! I am quite excited about the prospects of widespread supercellular activity. Things may not begin perfectly, but I am forecasting it to be really cookin' by early evening.
I've been fairly bullish on this systems potential for a while and feel even more so after the latest 00Z NAM run. I suppose that means it will flame out. For daylight hours, rapid changes will take place by late afternoon due to low level theta-e advection/cap removal beneath ever steepening mid level lapse rates. Forecast NAM soundings 21-00Z show it uncapped along dryline. At first, I was concerned about seeming lack of low level convergence / weak veering at 850 w of dryline, especially farther North. This is a "good" thing for no-squalline though. There does seem to be a bit of a "push"/ "bulge" from LBB NEWD toward CDS because of lead wave aloft. I like the deep mixing in this area which leads me to believe there will be initiation over the SRN TX panhandle or NW TX. In addition, this "hot prod" will be pointing right into a progged moist bullseye/axis with upper 50s dews (60 if you believe the NAM) over SW OK. Given superb hodographs, I would expect initially relatively high based clouds coming out of the "heat", but quickly turning into classic supercells as they travel toward SW OK. Maybe this will be the best target for daytime storms? I was originally liking farther N around GAG or DDC, but now I'm thinking more S. I don't like the dry air in place now but if we can get a 55+ dewpoint I won't be too worried. Most models give 56+ dews. Southern target would have better access to dews. Also lead wave and maybe enhanced convergence, not to mention steeper low level lapse rates in the "heat" w of dryline. My stab is for a cell to form around Hall county and continue NEWD into Beckham/Washita counties with a photogenic, large tornado (and an unbroken windshield!). Happy chasing and I will try to have the CHASERCAM up and running! http://www.corepuncher.com/chasercam/
I've been fairly bullish on this systems potential for a while and feel even more so after the latest 00Z NAM run. I suppose that means it will flame out. For daylight hours, rapid changes will take place by late afternoon due to low level theta-e advection/cap removal beneath ever steepening mid level lapse rates. Forecast NAM soundings 21-00Z show it uncapped along dryline. At first, I was concerned about seeming lack of low level convergence / weak veering at 850 w of dryline, especially farther North. This is a "good" thing for no-squalline though. There does seem to be a bit of a "push"/ "bulge" from LBB NEWD toward CDS because of lead wave aloft. I like the deep mixing in this area which leads me to believe there will be initiation over the SRN TX panhandle or NW TX. In addition, this "hot prod" will be pointing right into a progged moist bullseye/axis with upper 50s dews (60 if you believe the NAM) over SW OK. Given superb hodographs, I would expect initially relatively high based clouds coming out of the "heat", but quickly turning into classic supercells as they travel toward SW OK. Maybe this will be the best target for daytime storms? I was originally liking farther N around GAG or DDC, but now I'm thinking more S. I don't like the dry air in place now but if we can get a 55+ dewpoint I won't be too worried. Most models give 56+ dews. Southern target would have better access to dews. Also lead wave and maybe enhanced convergence, not to mention steeper low level lapse rates in the "heat" w of dryline. My stab is for a cell to form around Hall county and continue NEWD into Beckham/Washita counties with a photogenic, large tornado (and an unbroken windshield!). Happy chasing and I will try to have the CHASERCAM up and running! http://www.corepuncher.com/chasercam/
