4/24/07 - Clear as mud
It appears several parameters will be in place today over a wide area for supercells, including a few tornadoes. However, the whole system is less than optimal with stacked low and surging pacific front. As of 630 am CDT, the surface front was surging through west Texas. Models show this front stalling near I-35 later today, but 850 flow is veered even above/East of dryline. What we can hope for is that strong heating takes place W of dryline, and induces pressure falls to back those winds back to Southerly. Then, that will enhance low level rotation potential. Could be colder aloft but I won't complain too much since we have mid/upper 60s dewpoints.
Should I chase North (KS), or South (OK/TX)? I typically hate chasing south of the red river, N Texas sucks E of SPC-ABI line, but hey, "you can't rule it out". Up north storms are more probable near the low with enhanced convergence, but storm motions will be trucking 45 kts NNE and while they may spin for a brief period along the synoptic warm front, that won't last long...and I"ll be in fricken Nebraska before I know it! Not to mention I'm working my last night shift now and will be going on little sleep. Therefore, I may opt for the Southern option close to home, and maybe pick up a nice supercell before sunset at the tip of the hot prod SRN OK/NRN TX. 4km NSSL WRF shows a supercell near OUN by 00Z. I hate to say it, but this day might very well under produce in a bid way! I see biggest SIGTOR potential SERN OK into NERN TX late. Adios.
Should I chase North (KS), or South (OK/TX)? I typically hate chasing south of the red river, N Texas sucks E of SPC-ABI line, but hey, "you can't rule it out". Up north storms are more probable near the low with enhanced convergence, but storm motions will be trucking 45 kts NNE and while they may spin for a brief period along the synoptic warm front, that won't last long...and I"ll be in fricken Nebraska before I know it! Not to mention I'm working my last night shift now and will be going on little sleep. Therefore, I may opt for the Southern option close to home, and maybe pick up a nice supercell before sunset at the tip of the hot prod SRN OK/NRN TX. 4km NSSL WRF shows a supercell near OUN by 00Z. I hate to say it, but this day might very well under produce in a bid way! I see biggest SIGTOR potential SERN OK into NERN TX late. Adios.
