Chase Day Forecast

2008-06-03T19:16:00.001-07:00

June 3rd and 4th

2008-06-03T19:12:00.000-07:00

Another 1-2 punch in the offing as a glorious 2008 chase season draws to a close (at least for me).

A "day before the day" on Wed, along a warm front in KS, maybe near SLN to CNK. Capping will inhibit convection for most of the day, but by late afternoon, convergence along the boundary should break the cap, especially near 00Z when the low level jet REALLY gets cranking and we get 500+ SRH. Could be 1 or 2 cells that are big bruisers with large tornadoes.

On Thursday, looks like a classic outbreak, although not top end due to moisture levels. We'd need mid 70s dewpoints for that I think...but nonetheless...i doubt it will disappoint with numeruos tornadic supercells expected along the dryline. KS and perhaps NRN OK is my pick area for classis sups. Will attempt to have chasercam on if data alllows. Good luck.

May 22nd and May 23rd...Potential Chase of the Year

2008-05-21T10:22:00.001-07:00

The next two days have the potential to make or break my chase season. If it works out right, it could be one of my top chases of all time.

Moisture will surge back rapidly overnight tonight and through the weekend, with a nice deepening low over SE Colorado and a dryline setting up across WRN KS. A warm front will be inplace across NRN KS into SRN NEB.

What can I say...shear and instability will be great...especially near the dryline/warm front intersection. My pick as of now will be Hays Kansas...will get there tomorrow afternoon and go from there. Storm motions will be a bit quick, 200/40 or so, but will hope for a right move along the warm front.

Friday looks good as well, but perhaps not quite the shear setup as Thur. Still, very unstable air mass near the warm front should yield a few tornadic supercells, SRN NEB into NRN KS. Good luck to all who will be chasing!

April 3rd, 2008 - North Texas

2008-04-03T07:56:00.000-07:00

Looks like a decent chase day setting up. Not sure about total tornado threat, but a nice beast of a storm seems likely with very large hail. Good moisture in place so instability will be large. Just a matter of the low level winds responding/backing after the passage of the lead upper wave. Could be a late show, if there is a sigtor. Targeting SPS and points just S later this afternoon.
Although helicity will be marginal, the very large CAPE and steep lapse rates can sometimes work magic, as can a deviant right moving storm. I still have hopes of seeing a tornado today, or perhaps early evening.

June 7th - OK into MO

2007-06-07T12:18:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the late post...I know I"ve been about worthless as of late updating this.

Nice surge of Theta-E coming up through CNTRL OK, weak convergence along dryline. 18Z OUN sounding shows capping but continued heating should allow deeper CU to form, as seen on latest vis imagery. SRH is pathetic until you get into ERN OK/ SWRN MO where it may be sufficient for a sigtor if supercells can form and move into that environment later this evening. Will hope for initiation around home (OUN) or just NE of home and follow it NE.

May 23rd - OK/TX/KS

2007-05-23T08:13:00.000-07:00

It's pretty clear parameters will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes (especially late), but exactly where the storms will be is a tough question. Models are all over the place, but there are two areas. 1) Along warm front as it moves NWWD across the panhandles and 2) farther west where main forcing is coming out. I don't like the models consistent forecast of poor low level lapse rates up through the TX panhandle. The main thing to watch today is the visible imagery and surface obs...if it can heat up toward 80 near the boundary then we'll be in really good shape. Would love to chat more but have to go WEST!

May 4 - Isolated Cell in SW KS??

2007-05-04T06:56:00.000-07:00

Moisture return is well underway with strong heating expected W of dryline. Some concern with capping but should be able to break cap. This may occur rather late in the day, between 5-7pm. I expect an isolated supercell over SW KS, with potential for a decent tornado. This is just the apitizer as Saturday looks phenomenal.

4/24/07 - Clear as mud

2007-04-24T04:31:00.000-07:00

It appears several parameters will be in place today over a wide area for supercells, including a few tornadoes. However, the whole system is less than optimal with stacked low and surging pacific front. As of 630 am CDT, the surface front was surging through west Texas. Models show this front stalling near I-35 later today, but 850 flow is veered even above/East of dryline. What we can hope for is that strong heating takes place W of dryline, and induces pressure falls to back those winds back to Southerly. Then, that will enhance low level rotation potential. Could be colder aloft but I won't complain too much since we have mid/upper 60s dewpoints.

Should I chase North (KS), or South (OK/TX)? I typically hate chasing south of the red river, N Texas sucks E of SPC-ABI line, but hey, "you can't rule it out". Up north storms are more probable near the low with enhanced convergence, but storm motions will be trucking 45 kts NNE and while they may spin for a brief period along the synoptic warm front, that won't last long...and I"ll be in fricken Nebraska before I know it! Not to mention I'm working my last night shift now and will be going on little sleep. Therefore, I may opt for the Southern option close to home, and maybe pick up a nice supercell before sunset at the tip of the hot prod SRN OK/NRN TX. 4km NSSL WRF shows a supercell near OUN by 00Z. I hate to say it, but this day might very well under produce in a bid way! I see biggest SIGTOR potential SERN OK into NERN TX late. Adios.

FCST: February 23rd, 2007

2007-02-22T20:59:00.000-08:00

First chase of the year, and an early one! I am quite excited about the prospects of widespread supercellular activity. Things may not begin perfectly, but I am forecasting it to be really cookin' by early evening.

I've been fairly bullish on this systems potential for a while and feel even more so after the latest 00Z NAM run. I suppose that means it will flame out. For daylight hours, rapid changes will take place by late afternoon due to low level theta-e advection/cap removal beneath ever steepening mid level lapse rates. Forecast NAM soundings 21-00Z show it uncapped along dryline. At first, I was concerned about seeming lack of low level convergence / weak veering at 850 w of dryline, especially farther North. This is a "good" thing for no-squalline though. There does seem to be a bit of a "push"/ "bulge" from LBB NEWD toward CDS because of lead wave aloft. I like the deep mixing in this area which leads me to believe there will be initiation over the SRN TX panhandle or NW TX. In addition, this "hot prod" will be pointing right into a progged moist bullseye/axis with upper 50s dews (60 if you believe the NAM) over SW OK. Given superb hodographs, I would expect initially relatively high based clouds coming out of the "heat", but quickly turning into classic supercells as they travel toward SW OK. Maybe this will be the best target for daytime storms? I was originally liking farther N around GAG or DDC, but now I'm thinking more S. I don't like the dry air in place now but if we can get a 55+ dewpoint I won't be too worried. Most models give 56+ dews. Southern target would have better access to dews. Also lead wave and maybe enhanced convergence, not to mention steeper low level lapse rates in the "heat" w of dryline. My stab is for a cell to form around Hall county and continue NEWD into Beckham/Washita counties with a photogenic, large tornado (and an unbroken windshield!). Happy chasing and I will try to have the CHASERCAM up and running! http://www.corepuncher.com/chasercam/

FCST: May 9th - Messy Forecast

2006-05-09T11:24:00.000-07:00

*Sorry this is late, blogger site was not working right!*

Why can't we ever have the clear cut cases? Very complicated forecast today, I'm not confident in any one scenario, but I will offer three possible chase targets: 1) ERN OK - Some pretty nasty outflow air from overnight MCS North of I-40. The outflow boundary may provide a focus for later development, however, capping on morning soundings is substantial, at least for surface based parcels. Looks like we need mid 90-95 just to think about initiation. Bad thing is, the 700 warm axis 10-12 C shifts EWD across the state through the day, and given low amplitude trough, low level winds are veered 850 flow will weaken with time. Still, relatively higher speeds appear likely over SERN OK into WRN AR / NERN TX. Phenomenal instability in place, and deep shear sufficient for supercells. Will there be much during the day? I'll hope for initiation somewhere over SCNTRL OK, but not holding my breath. If the GFS verifies, there could be some "night hoses" with stronger low level shear and surface low. I'd rather not chase E of Eufala unless there is a distinct SIG TOR threat before sunset. 2) SRN OK into TX - Easy to overlook TX, but it's going to get HOT West of dryline with temperatures around 100. Convergence not really strong but I expect isolated cells anywhere from far SRN OK to the Rio Grande. Some weaker flow aloft I-20 corridor but maybe farther S of there conditions more favorable flow-wise. 3) TX Panhandle into WRN OK (late) - Best shot at widespread convection, but starting out high based and behind cold front! I am hopeful of the "wrap around moisture" prog with RUC saying 4000 CAPE into far SW OK poking WWD toward CDS after 21Z. This may be the best combination of good terrain, parameters, and storm likelihood. What a complicated day! I'll wait and see, haven't decided on a target yet.

FCST: May 9th - Messy Forecast

2006-05-09T06:23:00.001-07:00

Why can't we ever have the clear cut cases?

Very complicated forecast today, I'm not confident in any one scenario, but I will offer three possible chase targets:

1) ERN OK - Some pretty nasty outflow air from overnight MCS North of I-40. The outflow boundary may provide a focus for later development, however, capping on morning soundings is substantial, at least for surface based parcels. Looks like we need mid 90-95 just to think about initiation. Bad thing is, the 700 warm axis 10-12 C shifts EWD across the state through the day, and given low amplitude trough, low level winds are veered 850 flow will weaken with time. Still, relatively higher speeds appear likely over SERN OK into WRN AR / NERN TX. Phenomenal instability in place, and deep shear sufficient for supercells. Will there be much during the day? I'll hope for initiation somewhere over SCNTRL OK, but not holding my breath. If the GFS verifies, there could be some "night hoses" with stronger low level shear and surface low. I'd rather not chase E of Eufala unless there is a distinct SIG TOR threat before sunset.

2) SRN OK into TX - Easy to overlook TX, but it's going to get HOT West of dryline with temperatures around 100. Convergence not really strong but I expect isolated cells anywhere from far SRN OK to the Rio Grande. Some weaker flow aloft I-20 corridor but maybe farther S of there conditions more favorable flow-wise.

3) TX Panhandle into WRN OK (late) - Best shot at widespread convection, but starting out high based and behind cold front! I am hopeful of the "wrap around moisture" prog with RUC saying 4000 CAPE into far SW OK poking WWD toward CDS after 21Z. This may be the best combination of good terrain, parameters, and storm likelihood.

What a complicated day! I'll wait and see, haven't decided on a target yet.

FCST: May 9th - Messy Forecast

2006-05-09T06:23:00.000-07:00

FCST: ERN TX Panhandle / WRN OK

2006-05-02T10:03:00.000-07:00

Going West today. Overall, wind profiles will be marginally favorable for tornadoes, with thermodynmics picking up the slack. As of noon, an outflow boundary extended across NW TX / WRN OK, with surface map showing low to mid 60s dewpoints advecting NWD W of this boundary, from ABI North to CDS. Morning soundings show very steep mid to upper level lapse rates in place, which will combine with heating to produce strong instaiblity.

Storms will be likely by late afternoon over NW TX and the Panhandle, along residual outflow boundary and where strong heating takes place. Flow aloft may only be 30-35 kts at 500 mb, increasing to perhaps 50 kts higher up. This suggests that shear will be only marginally favorable for sustained / long lived supercells. However, given steep lapse rates in place, and low level shear augmentation by residual boundary and increasing 850 flow (around and after 00z), any strong storm may produce a tornado, especially early in its life cycle before becoming occluded. Will leave Norman by 1pm, initial target CDS. Will have chasecam up, provided cell coverage!

FCST: Monday 4/24

2006-04-24T08:03:00.001-07:00

While things are not perfect for sig tors today, I think we may get an isolated one. Finally, we have some good juice in place with mid 60s dewpoints. In addition, we have stellar mid level lapse rates of 8.5 C/km or so which goes along with my saying, "lapse rates over 8.0, tornadoes will be great". There will be many storms today, along cold front, old outflow boundaries, etc. A good strategy for today is to find the low level shear maximum and hope storms move into that environment. I'm planning on departing Norman around 11-12, heading N into the END-ICT vicinity...where surface winds will hopefully remain backed due to morning convection. Will have the chase cam up! Good luck.

FCST: Thursday March 30th

2006-03-29T21:42:00.000-08:00

I will be chasing today, leaving OUN around noon or so, unless of course I have reason to stick around.

Things should get interesting in a hurry, from N to S. Although the upper system will begin to "leave" the SRN part of the dryline behind, orienting it NE / SW after 21Z...there should be sufficient instaibilty, not to mention extreme hodographs for multiple tornadoes over ERN KS and NERN OK. Plus, this will allow portions of the dryline in OK to heat fully. I expect several tornado reports in ERN OK. I like to play the "heat"...basically following the hot prod NEWD into the high helicity environment. I'd like to see a nice tornadic sup. cross highway 75 N of Tulsa about 5 PM!

FCST: Wednesday March 29th

2006-03-28T20:37:00.000-08:00

I will not chase today. There is a shot of a severe storm across the SRN plains late Wednesday, but potential looks too low for me to make chase plans at this time. I will of course continue to monitor the situation.

Main failure mode for today will be forcing. Yes, there will be a dryline with some convergence but other factors may negate this. First, there will be shortwave ridging aloft in advance of the main trough which will be moving into NM late in the day. While models do show an axis of instability over WRN OK into NW TX, convergence will actually decrease with time due to backing winds WEST of the dryline in response to approaching upper trough. Therefore, I expect best shot of storms West of the dryline where there will be little in the way of instability for severe. Temperatures aloft will warm as well, thus, it does not appear to be a very good chase day unless you live in Midland or Lubbock and want to take a jaunt West to see maybe some hail. Convective activity will likely peak after sunset across WRN TX as low level jet brings more moisture NWWD. Thursday looks more interesting, but still nowhere near optimal. Expect a post for Thursday by Wed night.

FCST: Sunday March 19th

2006-03-18T22:40:00.000-08:00

Updated 7:45 AM CST

It's a no go. Too many negatives for such a drive. First, there are lots of clouds. Second, the warm front is quite far South. Third, the RUC and NAM could not be more different, RUC says 850 flow is horrible this afternoon and keeps instability south of Junction, while the NAM strengthens 850 flow late, but farther West over not as good air. Given all these negatives, will sit this one out. Still will keep an eye out...cannot rule out a last minute drive to the SouthWest to intercept any supercell that may form, but at the moment it does not look that good.

Old post below...
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Target area: Near Abilene, TX

This is a complicated forecast as of late Saturday night. Ongoing storms over srn TX which may reinforce the warm front...and make it harder for good moisture to return NWWD. I expect at least some near 60 dewpoints up to Abilene by afternoon though. Looks like storms will fire early farther west though, given uncapped forecast soundings for MAF and LBB at 18Z! That's ok...just as long as we get a few supercells. They will move NE and encounter increasingly better low level shear and instability. Therefore, I am hoping for a nice supercell not too far from Abilene before sunset. Maybe just W of there. BTW...if we do get low 60 dewpoints up that far NW, there should be some butt kicking supercells with a few tornadoes, given 300-400 0-3 SRH forecast by the models.

Chasing Today Sunday March 12th !!!

2006-03-11T20:12:00.000-08:00

Sunday has high end tornado potential to be sure, from extreme ERN KS into NRN MO mainly N of I-70.

Initial Target: East side of KC metro area, early afternoon
Main chasing concerns: Chase Logistics due to fast storm motions

Finally, we have some quality low level moisture in place across the lower MS valley, which will advect NWD into the target area tomorrow. on a strong sly low level jet. The 00Z models from tonight paint a scary picture, with plenty of instability and insane wind shear profiles. Just take a look at the 00Z forecast sounding for Columbia MO...2200+ MUCAPE and 600+ SRH ! There will be little capping so I expect storms to form by 21Z. Latest 00Z NAM shows initiation farther West than previous runs, maybe along the warm front / dryline intersection.

Like I said, the main problems will be both 1) Fast storm motions around 50 mph, plus 2) Locally hilly conditions and decreased visibility due to trees, depending upon the road. At least the storm motions will NOT be due Northeast...which is almost impossible to chase with fast speeds. A good right moving storm may be moving about 255/48. At least trees do not have much foliage this time of year!

I'll get the chasercam up during the afternoon hours. Everyone out chasing on Sunday, have a safe chase!

FCST: Tuesday March 7th - No chase for me (work)

2006-03-07T09:02:00.000-08:00

Target: Somewhere between Enid and Wichita.

Expect: Large hail (Possibly tennis ball size), isolated tornado.

Concerns: Moisture quality/upstream drying,Capping, possible late initiation.

Discussion: Current RAOB data this morning showed good quality moisture over central OK, with a 52 F 850 mb dewpoint at OUN. However, upstream soundings at FWD as well as GPS water vapor sensors showed a dry area over NRN TX. This "lack of moisture" will likely advect NWD through the day...but there is better moisture behind this "dry hole" and is reflected by low level cloudiness moving NWD out of central / SERN TX. As of 17Z, you can see the moisture almost to the DFW Metroplex. Therefore, dewpoints could fluxuate through the day from mid 50s to low 60s. Depending up on the dewpoint, this could make all the difference between late afternoon initiation vs. waiting until nighttime because it is capped. Further, there is some cirrus over the target area currently which will hamper heating for a while. Hopefully this will clear out and allow for stronger heating, which is needed. All that said, parameters are favorable for supercells and I expect at least 1 between 21-03 z near target area. No corepunching today!

Today 3/4 (no chase for me)

2006-03-04T09:55:00.000-08:00

No chase for me today. I have to work until 4pm and could not reach the target area. Besides, I probably wouldn't chase even if I was off, potential just too low when weighing how far the trip would be to....

ERN NM - Potential for a few somewhat high based supercells today producing mainly hail. It's capped into TX but heating up over NM. We might even get a couple storms into the WRN TX panhandle by late afternoon given better moisture and it is clearing out a bit as of noon local time.

Dewpoints will continue to rise into the 50s and with the trough approaching...storms are likely. If I could magically teleport myself after work I'd go to Roswell, maybe even Clovis to watch an isolated storm.