April 3rd (Day 2)

Well, time to dust off the ol' chasercam and chase equipment for a possible bigtime chase! Nice set of features coming together for a relatively confined tornado outbreak, from SW OK into NW TX. Not to get into the details TOO far in advance...nice trough emerging, low level moisture return, heating near the dryline, and great shear profiles should spell a couple strong tornadoes. Will update the chaseday forecast when Wed night or Thur morning.

Stick a fork in it

Long range models show upper ridge building over the West, and a trough in the East. This is exactly opposite of what we want. I don't forsee anything worth chasing at least for a few weeks. Maybe mid to late June will turn around, but I'm not holding my breath.

FCST: May 27th - May 31st

Medium range models are showing a ridge building over the ERN CONUS...which will allow better moisture to "stew" across the gulf region. Meanwhile...a mean trough is forecast across the WRN states, with daily lee troughing across the high plains. Given increasing moisture this coming weekend, I'm hopeful for diurnal dryline setups favoring a few supercells. A major key to how productive any one day is will be the amount of mid/upper level flow which will impinge on the dryline from the west. With such a strong ridge building aloft, its hard to get a trough to "plow" EWD through it. GFS shows higher flow across WRN KS/NEB and ERN CO by Tuesday May 30th.

Since I haven't been chasing, what HAVE I been up to? Pulling weeds, cleaning the garage over and over, and making various home improvements. This is not acceptable May behavior.

FCST: Through May 20th

The pattern looks like crap. Absolutely horrible. Might catch a NW flow storm in the plains every now and again but moisture will be marginal for anything worth chasing given gas prices. See you in a week or so.

FCST: May 2 - May 12th or so

Long range models have done several "flip flops" as of late, but seem to be hinting that a trough will eventualy set up over the WRN CONUS May 9-12 and maybe beyond. In the near term, Tuesday May 2nd looks like a decent chase day with good visibility and some good strong updrafts given very steep mid level lapse rates and returning moisture, although the NAM/GFS models are WAY overdone with low level moisture...60-63 dewpoints appear likely at peak heating along the dryline, not 65-70! I'll likely chase this day.

Beyond, we're getting to the time of year where it will be easier to get moisture for storms. I do not like this persistent ERN U.S. trouging that keep occurring...makes for narrow warm sectors. If we can get a nice solid trough to swing through the central U.S. with a couple days of moisture return, we'll be in business!

FCST: April 24th

GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement with timing of moderately strong and progressive shortwave trough emerging into the SRN high plains on Monday (does this necessarily mean the forecast is reliable? I have no idea, but it makes me feel good). The only problem (with regard to a high end event) is that retarded high that moves into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend...giving us only 1 day of decent moisture return prior to the potential chase day. Hey, this is nothing new, after all it's early spring....and...we have been working with sub-par moisture all year long, but that hasn't stopped the tornadoes, has it? Thanks to good ole steep mid to upper level lapse rates, our potential is maximized. GFS soundings (138 hours out at the time of this writing) show 700-500 mb lapse rates over 8.3 c/km and a mid 60 dewpoint! The dew is suspect to me, but nonetheless I will gladly verify this forecast personally by filming a large and long lived tornado.

FCST: Through mid/late April

Doesn't look good at all for chase opportunities in the long range. In the short term, there is a trough coming out on April 15th across the central and nrn plains, but moisture quality will not be good. Can't trust the models exact location this far out but it appears from NERN KS into ERN NEB and WRN IA will be the spots to be (not me though).

After this wave moves through, looks like that nasty ERN U.S. trough will want to re-emerge. We can spare 2 or 3 weeks here in mid to late April, as long as May turns around! I suspect we'll see another round of troughs by that time, at which time the smorgasbord will become fully stocked.