Forecast: March 19-21
Medium range models show some potential down the road sometime between next Sunday and Tuesday.
High pressure is currently sitting over the srn plains and lower ms valley...but the pattern will remain rather progressive...and this high will shift quickly EWD. An upper shortwave trough now over CA will move into the central plains on Wed, and will induce low pressure to form over ERN CO and WRN KS. With surface high over AL/GA by this time...ELY flow around srn periphery will allow for some low level moisture / dewpoints in the 50s / to return WWD into central and SRN TX by Wed afternoon. Now, I don't expect any severe weather on Wed, but the key is that this lead shortwave will begin to veer low level flow across the gulf, allowing for better moisture return for the next trough.
GFS and ECMWF solutions are similar amplifying an upper trough over the SWRN states on Saturday 3/18. By this time, dewpoints into the lower 60s should cover much of SRN TX...perhaps even as far West as Midland, TX given deep ELY flow. Given favorable shear profiles and increased instability, a few supercells would be possible near Del Rio TX NWWD up toward San Angelo and Midland. I probably wouldn't chase Saturday, given long distance and marginal potential at this time.
The better day, according to the models, would be Sunday March 19th. There are some timing issues of course with speed of upper trough...ECMWF has the trough axis over the lower CO river valley , while the GFS brings it into ERN AZ by 12Z Sunday. Either way, there will be better moisture in place for instability with dewpoints into the 60-65 degree range likely given persistent SELY flow. Details are impossible to hash out this far out (120 hours), but models suggest a warm front near the Red River, and favorable shear throughout the warm sector for supercells. Will continue to monitor!
High pressure is currently sitting over the srn plains and lower ms valley...but the pattern will remain rather progressive...and this high will shift quickly EWD. An upper shortwave trough now over CA will move into the central plains on Wed, and will induce low pressure to form over ERN CO and WRN KS. With surface high over AL/GA by this time...ELY flow around srn periphery will allow for some low level moisture / dewpoints in the 50s / to return WWD into central and SRN TX by Wed afternoon. Now, I don't expect any severe weather on Wed, but the key is that this lead shortwave will begin to veer low level flow across the gulf, allowing for better moisture return for the next trough.
GFS and ECMWF solutions are similar amplifying an upper trough over the SWRN states on Saturday 3/18. By this time, dewpoints into the lower 60s should cover much of SRN TX...perhaps even as far West as Midland, TX given deep ELY flow. Given favorable shear profiles and increased instability, a few supercells would be possible near Del Rio TX NWWD up toward San Angelo and Midland. I probably wouldn't chase Saturday, given long distance and marginal potential at this time.
The better day, according to the models, would be Sunday March 19th. There are some timing issues of course with speed of upper trough...ECMWF has the trough axis over the lower CO river valley , while the GFS brings it into ERN AZ by 12Z Sunday. Either way, there will be better moisture in place for instability with dewpoints into the 60-65 degree range likely given persistent SELY flow. Details are impossible to hash out this far out (120 hours), but models suggest a warm front near the Red River, and favorable shear throughout the warm sector for supercells. Will continue to monitor!
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