Long Range Forecast: March 29th through April 2nd
Things will be heating up in the coming weeks and it could prove to be a busy start to the month of April...something we have not experienced for quite some time!
After this trough over the Eastern states lifts out, the models are forecasting upper ridging to materialize over the same area...this is good for us as it allows pressures to lower across this region...letting air of carribean / gulf origin to advect NWWD across the gulf.
All long range models are in agreement early on, kicking off this potentially active period with a possible chase day on Wed March 30th. At this time, it appears moisture return will be in its infancy, thus instability levels will not be very good. However, some upper height falls aloft with approaching trough (axis back over AZ 00Z/30th) and heating may allow for isolated thunderstorms along the dryline from WRN KS into WRN OK and NWRN TX. Don't hang your hat on anything GOOD, just know there may be storms. I'm at least OFF work this day, but doesn't look too good.
The next day, Thursday, looks much better for widespread severe as the trough kicks out into the plains while deepening. By Thursday, surface dewpoints, I suspect, will be in the lower 60s as far North as SERN KS and WRN MO...with mid 60's down across AR into TX. Very strong wind shear will exist with this system, but as always this time of year, instability will be in question. Also, storm motions will likely be out of this world fast so I'm not that excited...although it could be similar to March 12th in many ways. I have to work so I really don't care, however (it will be fun to work though).
As always I have my eyes set on the future...when at some point, we will have mid to upper 60s dewpoints up through OK, KS , TX panhandle, with a nice broad belt of flow coming out, along with very steep mid to upper level lapse rates. Models say...this might occur as soon as Monday April 2nd. The ECMWF has a really nice amplitude to the trough while the GFS is less...but regardless..there will be instability in place. I actually prefer the lower amplitude system because there will be less clouds and storms covering the warm sector, and less risk of early/premature development. Fingers crossed...GFS shows 3500 CAPE along with nice hodographs with 25kt ELY storm motions! I have to work that evening at 8pm...maybe I can squeeze in a few hours of chasing if it is a local event. Anyway, that is 174 hours out as of this writing, and much can and will change. We'll keep you advised.
After this trough over the Eastern states lifts out, the models are forecasting upper ridging to materialize over the same area...this is good for us as it allows pressures to lower across this region...letting air of carribean / gulf origin to advect NWWD across the gulf.
All long range models are in agreement early on, kicking off this potentially active period with a possible chase day on Wed March 30th. At this time, it appears moisture return will be in its infancy, thus instability levels will not be very good. However, some upper height falls aloft with approaching trough (axis back over AZ 00Z/30th) and heating may allow for isolated thunderstorms along the dryline from WRN KS into WRN OK and NWRN TX. Don't hang your hat on anything GOOD, just know there may be storms. I'm at least OFF work this day, but doesn't look too good.
The next day, Thursday, looks much better for widespread severe as the trough kicks out into the plains while deepening. By Thursday, surface dewpoints, I suspect, will be in the lower 60s as far North as SERN KS and WRN MO...with mid 60's down across AR into TX. Very strong wind shear will exist with this system, but as always this time of year, instability will be in question. Also, storm motions will likely be out of this world fast so I'm not that excited...although it could be similar to March 12th in many ways. I have to work so I really don't care, however (it will be fun to work though).
As always I have my eyes set on the future...when at some point, we will have mid to upper 60s dewpoints up through OK, KS , TX panhandle, with a nice broad belt of flow coming out, along with very steep mid to upper level lapse rates. Models say...this might occur as soon as Monday April 2nd. The ECMWF has a really nice amplitude to the trough while the GFS is less...but regardless..there will be instability in place. I actually prefer the lower amplitude system because there will be less clouds and storms covering the warm sector, and less risk of early/premature development. Fingers crossed...GFS shows 3500 CAPE along with nice hodographs with 25kt ELY storm motions! I have to work that evening at 8pm...maybe I can squeeze in a few hours of chasing if it is a local event. Anyway, that is 174 hours out as of this writing, and much can and will change. We'll keep you advised.
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