FCST: April 24th

GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement with timing of moderately strong and progressive shortwave trough emerging into the SRN high plains on Monday (does this necessarily mean the forecast is reliable? I have no idea, but it makes me feel good). The only problem (with regard to a high end event) is that retarded high that moves into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend...giving us only 1 day of decent moisture return prior to the potential chase day. Hey, this is nothing new, after all it's early spring....and...we have been working with sub-par moisture all year long, but that hasn't stopped the tornadoes, has it? Thanks to good ole steep mid to upper level lapse rates, our potential is maximized. GFS soundings (138 hours out at the time of this writing) show 700-500 mb lapse rates over 8.3 c/km and a mid 60 dewpoint! The dew is suspect to me, but nonetheless I will gladly verify this forecast personally by filming a large and long lived tornado.