FCST: May 2 - May 12th or so

Long range models have done several "flip flops" as of late, but seem to be hinting that a trough will eventualy set up over the WRN CONUS May 9-12 and maybe beyond. In the near term, Tuesday May 2nd looks like a decent chase day with good visibility and some good strong updrafts given very steep mid level lapse rates and returning moisture, although the NAM/GFS models are WAY overdone with low level moisture...60-63 dewpoints appear likely at peak heating along the dryline, not 65-70! I'll likely chase this day.

Beyond, we're getting to the time of year where it will be easier to get moisture for storms. I do not like this persistent ERN U.S. trouging that keep occurring...makes for narrow warm sectors. If we can get a nice solid trough to swing through the central U.S. with a couple days of moisture return, we'll be in business!